Vote counting has started in Thailand’s general election after polls closed on Sunday. Pro-democracy opposition parties are predicted to defeat the conservative army-backed government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha. The main opposition Pheu Thai party, fronted by the daughter of billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is ahead in final opinion polls. Voters are expected to deliver a resounding defeat to ex-army chief and coup leader Prayut after a campaign that played out as a clash between a young generation yearning for change and the traditionalist, royalist establishment.
Polling stations closed at 5:00 pm (1000 GMT) with preliminary results expected later in the evening, though final parliamentary seat numbers will not be known for several weeks. In a kingdom where victory at the ballot box has often been trumped by coups and court orders, there are fears the military could seek to cling on, raising the prospect of fresh instability.
The election is the first since major youth-led pro-democracy protests erupted across Bangkok in 2020 with demands to curb the power and spending of Thailand’s king — breaching a long-held taboo on questioning the monarchy. The demonstrations petered out as Covid-19 curbs were imposed and dozens of leaders were arrested, but their energy has fuelled growing support for the more radical opposition Move Forward Party (MFP). An unclear or disputed result this time could lead to a fresh round of demonstrations and instability.
Adding to the uncertainty, rumours are already swirling that MFP could be dissolved by court order — the same fate that befell its predecessor Future Forward Party after it performed unexpectedly well at the 2019 poll.
