**Avalanche Price Breaks February Low — $20.07 In Danger As ETF Delay Triggers Bears**
– **AVAX** dropped 13.49% this week to $20.07, breaking February’s low and nearing the March critical support at $15.28.
– A 6.82% drop in DeFi TVL and $2.47M net outflow on May 31 shows strong risk-off behavior.
– SEC’s delay of Grayscale’s **AVAX** ETF decision to July 15 hit market confidence.
– Descending triangle breakdown confirmed as price slips below $21 support.
– Over 90% of **AVAX** holders remain in losses, signaling ongoing downside pressure.
**AVAX Price Update: Avalanche Slips Below February Floor**
Avalanche (**AVAX**) broke under February’s low of $20.20, sliding below $21 to trade at $20.07 — its weakest level in three months. Despite a 24-hour volume exceeding $568 million, sellers remain in control.
Attempts to hold the $20.85–$21.00 support failed, with price now approaching March’s key low of $15.28. The price has now broken its short-term structure, increasing the probability of continued downside pressure.
**ETF Delay and Market Mood Drag AVAX and ADA**
The SEC delayed Grayscale’s **AVAX** ETF verdict to July 15, shortly after VanEck launched a purpose-built institutional fund for Avalanche. Instead of boosting confidence, this delay shook sentiment, cooling prior optimism around institutional interest.
Cardano (ADA), facing a similar delay, also witnessed drawdowns, showing that ETF indecision continues to weigh on layer-1 ecosystems.
**Technical Outlook: Descending Triangle Breakdown in AVAXUSD**
The daily AVAXUSD chart reveals a breakdown from a descending triangle pattern. Lower highs since April were compressing toward the $21 support base, which has now given way.
The bearish continuation was confirmed by rising sell volume and failure to defend $20.50.
If $19.50 breaks, the $15.28 level becomes the next significant support. The descending triangle confirms lower highs, and unless $22.30 is reclaimed, every rally remains suspect.
Moreover, **AVAX** remains under all major EMAs — with the 20-day EMA at $22.55, 50-day at $22.18, 100-day at $23.15, and 200-day at $25.55 — forming a full bearish EMA stack that reinforces downside pressure.
**Momentum Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias**
RSI is now at 39.79, showing clear bearish momentum. The MACD histogram has deepened into red territory, with both the MACD and signal lines declining further apart — strengthening the downside confirmation.
The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator has dropped to -4.44, its lowest level since April. This sharp dip highlights that sellers have completely overwhelmed any bullish strength, reinforcing that the current move is not just corrective, but part of a sustained bearish trend.
**On-Chain Trends Signal Persistent Weakness**
Avalanche’s DeFi TVL dropped from $1.581b on May 28 to $1.473b by May 31 — a $108M erosion in three days, reflecting capital flight and reduced protocol engagement.
Exchange activity also supports the bearish case. Over May 30–31, net outflows reached $4.34M, showing consistent user exits.
More than 90% of **AVAX** holders are now underwater, with only 3.93% in profit. This highlights risk-off sentiment and increases the likelihood of further capitulation if support levels break.
**Conclusion: Breakdown Below $20.20 Sets Up Retest of March Support**
**AVAX** has now breached its February low and is heading toward March’s $15.28 level. This confirms a bearish structure with potential continuation unless strong buyer interest emerges.
The full bearish EMA alignment and momentum indicators continue to support downside pressure. If $19.50 fails to hold, **AVAX** could test $15.28 in the short term.
Given ETF delays and heavy holder losses, the bearish trend may persist well into mid-June unless market structure flips decisively bullish.
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