Global temperatures are likely to rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This is the first time that global temperatures have been this likely to breach 1.5C. However, the WMO has said that this does not necessarily mean that the world will cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above preindustrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The WMO’s latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update has predicted that there is a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5C by 2027. This is an increase from last year’s prediction which put the odds at about 50-50. The El Niño weather pattern, which is expected to develop in the coming months, is partially responsible for the increased likelihood of hitting 1.5C. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.
The WMO’s update provides more of a prediction-based long-range weather forecast, unlike the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s climate projections which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions. The WMO has also found a 98% chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, surpassing 2016 which saw global temperature impacted by about 1.3C (2.3F) of warming.
The combination of El Niño and human-induced climate change will push global temperatures into uncharted territory, according to WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
