Prominent banker and industrialist Uday Kotak issued a stark warning about India’s economic future at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026 in New Delhi on May 12, 2026. The founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank cautioned that the country has not yet felt the full impact of the escalating US-Iran conflict on energy prices, and that a major shock is imminent for Indian consumers.
Speaking at the summit, Kotak explained that oil companies have been absorbing massive costs using old inventory as a shock absorber for nearly two months. He warned that the real pain is coming soon and will hit consumers hard. “We have not seen the impact in the last two months of the Middle East war in terms of energy price transmission. It’s coming, and it’s coming big, and consumers have not felt the pressure at all,” he stated.
The veteran banker emphasized that individuals with limited income will soon have to spend significantly more on fuel, both directly and indirectly on everything dependent on fuel. He called for immediate preparedness, urging businesses and government to adopt stronger financial discipline. Kotak stressed the need to shift from short-term thinking focused on quarterly results and stock prices to a longer 3-5 year horizon.
“Shock coming, prepare for the worst. My view is we should prepare for paranoia before the event. We must prepare for the worst. Be ready for tough times, rather than waiting for the shock to hit us,” Kotak said. He noted that the world is shifting to a more fragmented geopolitical order, and India must build long-term national resilience rather than remain complacent.
These remarks came days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens for voluntary austerity measures. The Prime Minister urged people to reduce fuel consumption, adopt work-from-home arrangements where possible, and postpone non-essential gold purchases and foreign travel to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the economy.
Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri also addressed the energy situation at the summit, offering the government’s perspective. He reassured the public that India has robust buffers including approximately 60 days of crude oil, 60 days of natural gas, and 45 days of LPG rolling stock. He stated that supplies remain uninterrupted across more than 1 lakh retail outlets and to 33.5 crore LPG households.
Puri revealed that oil marketing companies are bearing losses of ₹1,000 crore per day to keep retail petrol and diesel prices stable, which have remained unchanged for over 18 months at ₹94.77 per litre in Delhi. With global crude prices surging from approximately $65 to $115-120 per barrel, the minister said first quarter under-recoveries are projected at nearly ₹2 lakh crore.
The minister defended the Prime Minister’s appeal as a word of caution and prudence, stating, “There is no crisis in India. PM Shri Narendra Modi Ji has only advised the citizens to moderate energy consumption to prevent any fiscal strain on the economy, not because we had issues with energy supplies.” Puri criticized those spreading panic and fear, adding that India has diversified crude sourcing to 41 countries to insulate against disruptions.
