The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala around June 4. The IMD has predicted that there will not be any monsoon before June 1. The IMD has also stated that there is no cyclone probability in the Arabian Sea for next week. The IMD has shared an updated long-range forecast outlook for the 2023 Southwest monsoon Season (June – September) rainfall and monthly rainfall and temperature for June 2023.
According to the IMD, below-normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except in some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India, and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above-normal rainfall is expected in June. However, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD has said that the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%.
Despite the El Nino phenomenon which is set to return after a three-year hiatus, India is set to receive normal rainfall this monsoon season, according to the weather office. However, most parts of the country will witness deficient showers in June, except some pockets in peninsular regions such as south Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Ladakh, said the India Meteorological Department. The weather office has also said that the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has begun and there was a 90 per cent probability of development of the El Nino phenomenon, which is known to affect monsoon rains in India. However, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop during the monsoon season which would offset the adverse impact of the El Nino and bring rains to most parts of the country.