The historically close allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are experiencing a public rift. This took a violent turn in the Yemen war when Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes near the Yemeni port city of Mukalla, hitting a shipment sent by the UAE. While the UAE has since then withdrawn most of its troops from Yemen, media campaigns are intensifying the rivalry between the two powerful nations of the Middle East. A potential fallout could result in various impacts, especially for the Arab world.
Saudi–UAE Tensions in Yemen
Saudi Arabia and the UAE had joined forces in 2015 to fight the takeover of Sanaa by the Houthis in Yemen. By 2017, the UAE began supporting and arming the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which controlled parts of southern Yemen and advocated a return to the pre-1990 division of the country into Southern Yemen. This directly opposed the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised Yemeni government, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Tensions escalated when the STC launched a sudden military offensive, seizing territory from the Presidential Leadership Council. Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes near the port of Mukalla, targeting a shipment sent by the UAE. Saudi Arabia claimed the shipment contained weapons, a claim the UAE strongly rejected. Saudi Arabia then warned the UAE not to send weapons and called the Emirati actions ‘extremely dangerous.’ Shortly thereafter, the PLC forces retook much of the territory briefly held by the STC, and the UAE announced that it would fully withdraw its remaining troops from the country. This has publicised a rivalry that has existed in whispers for a long time in the Arab world.
Impact on the Arab World
This rivalry put forth several risks. Direct military confrontation is unlikely, as both countries are deeply interested in maintaining regional stability. However, the likelihood of proxy wars is high. While the UAE has withdrawn its troops from Yemen, other areas still see the two countries on opposing sides. Conflicts may emerge in Somalia and Sudan, where both countries hold opposing visions for the future of these nations. Beyond strategic risks, this rivalry also carries economic costs. The last time a public rivalry occurred in the Gulf was during the diplomatic and trade boycott imposed on Qatar in 2017, which caused significant disruption across the Middle East. If the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE continues to grow, there is a possibility of similar bans and boycotts being imposed.
The public nature of this conflict reveals a deepening rift within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Saudi state broadcaster Al-Ekhbariya accused the UAE of ‘investing in chaos’ and supporting separatist movements from Libya to Yemen and across the Horn of Africa. While Arab nations usually tend to not publicise their conflicts, the dispute has taken a different and more open turn. This comes at a time of high regional instability and undermines perceptions of Gulf unity, which is especially crucial for security in the Red Sea. As the rift widens, the UAE is likely to deepen its alignment with Israel. This contrasts with the growing Arab consensus that Israel is a destabilising actor, especially amid atrocities committed against Palestinians. As a result, Arab cooperation may be further weakened. Finally, divisions within the Middle East can create space for Iran to enhance its own position as a regional actor.
Overall, these developments are likely to have long lasting implications and could fundamentally reshape Middle East politics. Alongside strategic and political consequences, the widespread loss of civilian life remains a major concern. Yet, within the priorities of international power politics, the loss of lives in conflict zones continues to be treated as secondary, raising questions about accountability and the human cost of regional rivalries.
