Bitcoin’s price has been stagnant for a while, with its last trade above $90,000 happening on March 7. It had reached over $100,000 by the end of last year, but the price quickly dropped. Since then, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend and even went below $80,000.
In addition to these struggles, President Trump’s tariff announcement added more pressure to the cryptocurrency market, causing most cryptocurrencies to suffer along with Bitcoin.
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the Bitcoin bull market seems to be over based on on-chain data analysis. One key metric is Realized Cap, which measures the actual capital entering and leaving the market. When there is high sell pressure, even large purchases cannot move the price because there are too many sellers. This was evident when Bitcoin was trading near $100,000, as there were massive volumes but the price barely moved.
When the Realized Cap increases but the Market Cap (based on the latest trading price) stays flat or drops, it indicates that money is flowing in but prices are not responding. This is a bearish sign, which is currently happening. On the other hand, if small amounts of new capital can push prices up, it signals a bullish market. However, even large amounts of capital are not enough to move Bitcoin’s price right now, suggesting a bear market. Historical data shows that real market reversals take at least six months, so a quick recovery is unlikely.
In conclusion, the current data clearly points to a bear market for Bitcoin. Sell pressure could ease at any time, but based on history, it usually takes at least six months for real reversals to occur. Therefore, a short-term rally seems unlikely.
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